J R Soc Med 2007;100:142-150
doi:10.1258/jrsm.100.3.142
© 2007 Royal Society of Medicine
Life and times of the impact factor: retrospective analysis of trends for seven medical journals (1994-2005) and their Editors' views
Mabel Chew1
Elmer V Villanueva2
Martin B Van Der Weyden3
1 Clinical Lecturer, Discipline of General Practice, University of Sydney, and
Associate Editor, British Medical Journal
2 Epidemiologist, National Breast Cancer Centre, Australia and Associate
Professor, Monash University Department of Rural and Indigenous Health, Moe,
Victoria, Australia
3 Editor, Medical Journal of Australia
Correspondence to: Mabel Chew E-mail:
mch3004{at}gmail.com
 |
SUMMARY
|
|---|
Objective (1) To analyse trends in the journal impact factor
(IF) of
seven general medical journals (
Ann Intern Med, BMJ, CMAJ, JAMA, Lancet,
Med J Aust and N Engl J Med) over 12 years;
and (2) to ascertain the
views of these journals' past and present
Editors on factors that had affected
their journals' IFs during
their tenure, including direct editorial
policies.
Design Retrospective analysis of IF data from ISI Web of Knowledge
Journal Citation ReportsScience Edition, 1994 to 2005, and interviews
with Editors-in-Chief.
Setting Medical journal publishing.
Participants Ten Editors-in-Chief of the journals, except Med J
Aust, who served between 1999 and 2004.
Main outcome measures IFs and component numerator and denominator
data for the seven general medical journals (1994 to 2005) were collected. IFs
are calculated using the formula: (Citations in year z to articles
published in years x and y)/(Number of citable articles published in years x
and y), where z is the current year and x and y are the
previous two years. Editors' views on factors that had affected their
journals' IFs were also obtained.
Results IFs generally rose over the 12-year period, with the N
Engl J Med having the highest IF throughout. However, percentage rises in
IF relative to the baseline year of 1994 were greatest for CMAJ
(about 500%) and JAMA (260%). Numerators for most journals tended to
rise over this period, while denominators tended to be stable or to fall,
although not always in a linear fashion. Nine of ten eligible editors were
interviewed. Possible reasons given for rises in citation counts included:
active recruitment of high-impact articles by courting researchers; offering
authors better services; boosting the journal's media profile; more careful
article selection; and increases in article citations. Most felt that going
online had not affected citations. Most had no deliberate policy to publish
fewer articles (lowering the IF denominator), which was sometimes the
unintended result of other editorial policies. The two Editors who
deliberately published fewer articles did so as they realized IFs were
important to authors. Concerns about the accuracy of ISI counting for the IF
denominator prompted some to routinely check their IF data with ISI. All
Editors had mixed feelings about using IFs to evaluate journals and academics,
and mentioned the tension between aiming to improve IFs and keeping
their constituents [clinicians] happy.
Conclusions IFs of the journals studied rose in the 12-year period
due to rising numerators and/or falling denominators, to varying extents.
Journal Editors perceived that this occurred for various reasons, including
deliberate editorial practices. The vulnerability of the IF to editorial
manipulation and Editors' dissatisfaction with it as the sole measure of
journal quality lend weight to the need for complementary measures.
 |
INTRODUCTION
|
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In 1955, Eugene Garfield created the impact factor (IF). It
was intended as
a means to evaluate the significance
of a particular work and its
impact on the literature and thinking
of the
period.
1
Little did he dream that it would become
a means to rank
journals
2 and to
evaluate institutions and
academics.
3,4
The
UK Government has suggested that after the 2008 RAE [Research
Assessment
Exercise], the system for assessing research quality and allocating
"quality-related"
research funding to universities... will be
mainly
metrics-based.
5
Moreover,
journals often commend their own IFs in
advertisements
3
targeting
readers, subscribers, authors and advertisers, among others.
Yet
many, including Garfield himself, have warned against misuse
of the IF as a
surrogate measure of research
quality.
2,3
Despite
this, we found no studies directly exploring Editors' perspectives
and
policies regarding the IF. We believe such study is vital,
as these may
dictate what is published, and consequently what
is read by health care
workers trying to put research into practice.
Thus, we decided to explore the IF phenomenon with two aims:
- To review trends in the IFs of selected general medical journals from 1994
to 2005, including several high-impact, prestigious journals held in high
general regard; and
- To explore what factors these journals' past and present Editors considered
had affected their IFs during their tenure, including any direct editorial
policies.
 |
METHODS
|
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We purposively selected seven journals from the Medicine,
General
& Internal category of the ISI Web of Knowledge
Journal Citation
ReportsScience Edition
database.
6 The
journals
we selected were as follows: five high-IF journals
Annals
of Internal Medicine (
Ann Intern Med),
British Medical
Journal (
BMJ),
Journal of the American Medical
Association (
JAMA),
Lancet,
and
New England Journal
of Medicine (
N Engl J Med); our own
journal
Medical
Journal of Australia (
Med J Aust); and
that of a country with a
comparable socioeconomic and healthcare
system to ours
Canadian
Medical Association Journal (
CMAJ).
We focused on high-impact
journals as the general paradigm is
that these are the journals that many
authors aspire to publish
in, and that we look to for guidance on best
practice, be it
medical or editorial. It was also likely that Editors of high
IF
journals had already invested some thought in this phenomenon,
and we
wished to explore whether they believed their editorial
policies had
contributed the their journals' high IFs. A journal's
IF is calculated yearly
using citation and publication data
from the previous two years. For instance,
the IF for 2005 is:
While the numerator count comprises citations to any article published by
that journal in the previous two years, the denominator of citable articles
comprises research articles and reviews only, and excludes editorials,
letters, news items, and meeting
abstracts.6
Our study comprised a quantitative and a qualitative arm. The quantitative
analysis was exploratory in nature, consisted primarily of descriptive
assessments of the data, and was intended to generate issues for the
qualitative phase of the study.
Quantitative study of IF statistics
From Journal Citation
Reports,6 we
collected yearly data on IFs, citations and citeable article counts from 1994
to 2005 for the seven selected journals. Absolute and relative annual changes
were calculated using 1994 as the base year. We drew inferences (necessarily
broad) from these simple observational data to identify issues for exploration
in the qualitative phase.
Qualitative study of interviews with Editors
We e-mailed the ten Editors-in-Chief of these journals (except Med J
Aust) who had served between 1999 and 2004 to seek a telephone interview
regarding influences on their journal's IF. If no response to the first e-mail
was received within two weeks, a second was sent. Once each Editor agreed to
be interviewed, he or she was sent the relevant journal's yearly IFs, citation
and article counts from 1994 to 2003 (2004/5 data being unavailable at that
time), and our prime interview question: What factor/s do you believe
contributed to the rise in your impact factor, and how?. A telephone
interview was also scheduled in advance.
Interviews were conducted from November 2004 to February 2005 by two of the
authors (MC and MVDW), around the above question, including any deliberate
editorial strategies. Detailed notes of the interviews were taken and analysed
manually by MC. Data analysis was conducted concurrently with data collection,
to enable later interviews to build on and explore further our under-standing
of Editors' views. Using template analysis, a coding template was constructed,
comprising codes to label emergent themes (including contrasting views) that
were identified by careful reading and re-reading of interview data, and
constant
comparison.7 The
template was modified as new themes emerged or previous themes disregarded. We
subsequently selected direct quotes to illustrate each theme.
 |
RESULTS
|
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Quantitative analysis
All seven IFs rose from 1994 to 2005
(
Figure 1), the
N Eng J
Med having the highest IF throughout. However, percentage increases
in IF
relative to the baseline year of 1994 were greatest for
CMAJ (about
500%) and
JAMA (260%) (
Figure
2). Citation counts
tended to rise, while citeable article counts
tended to be stable
or to fall (
Figure
2). In some cases, these changes were non-linear,
as with the
Lancet, which clearly displayed troughs and peaks
between 1998 and
2001. This prompted us to explore possible
influences on the IF by
distinguishing those on citation counts
from those on citeable article counts,
which were more likely
to be under editorial control.

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Figure 2. Percentage change in impact factor, citation count and citable article
count, relative to 1994, for seven general medical journals from 1994 to
2005.
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Interviews
Nine of ten Editors-in-Chief were contactable, and all these
agreed to be
interviewed. These comprised all five current Editors
(
Ann Intern Med,
CMAJ, JAMA, Lancet and
N Engl J Med), one who
had resigned just
before the interview period (
BMJ), and three
of four other former
Editors (
Ann Intern Med, JAMA, N Engl J Med). Guided by our
quantitative analysis, our initial coding
template assigned first-level codes
to the proffered reasons
for IF rises as (1) factors influencing citation
counts and
(2) those influencing citeable article counts. As specific factors
were
identified through the interview process, these were assigned
second-level,
and in some cases further third-level codes. A separate
first-level
theme emerged as the interviews progressed: Editors' concerns
about
the IF as a phenomenon in itself. Thematic saturation was achieved
by
the final interview, when no new reported influences on the
IF or new issues
surrounding it were identified.
Editors gave the following possible specific reasons for their IF rises
(see Table 1 for representative
quotes):
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Table 1. Possible reasons given by journal Editors for rising impact factors:
illustrative quotes from interviews
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Factors influencing citation counts
- Active recruitment of high-impact articles
- Courting researchers. Some Editors deliberately cultivated major
research institutions and personally approached lead investigators of major
research projects (Table 1).
For another Editor, such recruitment was occasional rather than systematic: he
relied instead on the journal name and long history of quality to get the best
trials.
- Hiring editorial staff. Several Editors found having good
editorial staff necessary for journal promotion, and had both employed and
carefully trained more. Experts in particular fields were sometimes contracted
as Editors to advise on what was hot, to attend research
presentations, and to commission ensuing papers at these meetings
(Table 1). Similarly, such
Editors were also encouraged to become members of various research advisory
panels.
- Improving services to authors. Other means to attract
authors included speeding up turn-around times, introducing fast track
publication for potential high impact papers (e.g. papers with great public
health significance), and timing publication of papers with their presentation
at research meetings (Table
1).
- Finding niches. Some Editors looked for a niche in the
market, a particular area of interest to attract academics in that field to
publish with the journal (Table
1). For one Editor, however, such an attempt didn't get off the
ground, as it did not seem to generate much general interest, while the
submitted papers were methodologically problematic and unlikely to be
cited.
- Media promotion. Boosting the journal's media profile was thought to
attract first-class authors, and therefore citable articles. Many Editors
actively promoted their journals to the popular media, for instance by putting
great effort into media releases and media conferences, and by cultivating
reporters (Table 1). On the
other hand, two Editors stated that they didn't seek to court media attention
(e.g. with media releases or deliberate acceptance of articles on this basis).
This was to avoid being misquoted and or being seen to be
shopping for publicity.
- Article selection. Careful article selection based on the quality of
papers was also considered crucial to citation. Thus, articles were
scrutinised for originality, interest and substantive contribution to the
international literature (Table
1). To one Editor, other selection criteria included topics of
interest to the general public, sometimes collated in theme issues (to attract
special articles on important subjects, create impact, provide data that could
change government policy, and attract media coverage). However, the experience
was less positive for another Editor, who found that a call for special papers
for theme issues did not yield quality articles, prompting him to stop
publishing such issues. An Editor whose journal was part of a larger group of
journals found that fostering collegiality within the group was helpful in
ensuring that the best submissions were published in the most suitable
journals within the group.
- Going online. Only one Editor stated that going online with free
full access had increased his journal's IF, which had risen faster than those
of specialty journals in the same publishing group that were not fully online.
Other Editors doubted that going online (whether with free full or limited
access) had made a difference to their citations, although all felt that it
was an important step to take.
- Non-editorial policy. Two Editors pointed out that journal citations
are generally rising anyway, and that this could be due to more journals being
included in the ISI database, and/or more citations being made in
articles.
Factors influencing citeable article counts
- Publication of fewer citeable articles. While IF denominators
generally fell, thereby increasing IFs, most Editors denied having deliberate
policies to publish fewer citeable articles. They attributed the fall to
Editors generally being choosier about what they published, and
to the trend for publishing longer research articles so that fewer articles
fitted in each issue. In one instance, it was also the
unintended result of redesigning journal layout. However, two Editors had
deliberately reduced the number of citeable articles (such as case reports),
as they realised IFs were an important consideration for authors in deciding
where to submit their articles (Table
1).
- Article classification by ISI. While there was general acceptance
that citation counts by ISI were probably correct, there were concerns about
the accuracy of ISI counting for the IF denominator, as articles were
sometimes misclassified as citeable. Two Editors had noted such inaccuracies
for their journals, prompting them to routinely check the coding of their IF
denominator data each year; one of these also changed the journal's article
categories to make misclassification less likely
(Table 1). On the other hand,
three Editors stated that they deliberately stayed at arm's length from ISI,
not wanting to be seen to be too close.
Editors' attitudes toward IF
- Mixed feelings and concerns. Although all Editors were pleased about
their journals' rising IFs, they expressed mixed feelings toward the IF
phenomenon (Table 2). Most
stated that the IF meant more to researchers than to clinicians. It was also
pointed out that the IF favoured English-language and US journals, and could
be an uneven playing field that was open to abuse,
as the denominator could be manipulated internally. There were misgivings
about the emphasis placed on IFs in academic culture, with publication in
high-IF journals often used as a surrogate index of academic performance
(Table 2).
- Editorial effort. The extent of interest Editors expressed in their
own journals' IF ranged from not taking it that seriously,
through aiming for a robust but not overwhelming IF, to seeking
high IFs as a means to an end (attracting attention to the journal's broader
message). Almost all felt, however, that too much focus on this might alienate
their clinical readership (Table
2). Two Editors remarked that keeping their clinical
constituents interested was important, not just as the core
readership of general medical journals, but because this affected advertising
revenue (predicated on clinicians reading the journal). Efforts to appeal to
clinicians included publishing articles devoted to clinical interests,
clinical reviews (that served a dual purpose, being both considered
authoritative by clinicians and citable) and articles on the humanities, and
seeking suggestions for review topics at clinical meetings. In contrast, one
Editor felt that it was more important to give readers what they need,
not necessarily what they want... I didn't want to dumb down the
journal.
- Alternatives to the IF. Most Editors would not be unhappy if the IF
no longer existed but felt that it served a purpose, was easily measurable,
was objectively calculated and would be difficult to replace. One discussed
the necessity to educate others about better use of the IF, and several
suggested devising other criteria for judging journals that complemented,
rather than replaced, the IF. These included citations in Cochrane reviews,
guidelines or textbooks; measures of readership such as Letters to the
Editor, rapid responses [that tell us] how much readers engage with the
journal; and measures of clinical impact or how much papers
advance the health of community, such as that devised by the
Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences.
 |
DISCUSSION
|
|---|
This is the first study we are aware of that explores Editors'
views on
what affected IFs during their tenure. From 1994 to
2005, IFs of these seven
general medical journals rose, mostly
due to rising numerators and falling
denominators. We postulated
that these component data might be malleable, and
our qualitative
exploration showed that Editors believed this to be so, with
some
Editors going to great lengths to improve their IFs.
Editorial influences on the IF
These influences were believed to include active recruitment of
researchers, accelerating publication, careful article selection and media
promotion. Our study cannot show that these policies directly affected
citations, but they did include factors known to favour higher citation
counts, such as publishing more review
articles.3 Media
promotion may not only attract authors keen for wider publicity of their
research, but may also influence citations: a 1991 study showed that articles
from the New Engl J Med publicized in the New York Times
received more scientific citations than articles not so publicized; this
effect was not apparent for articles published during a strike of the
Times when an edition of record was prepared but not
distributed.8 A more
recent study has also demonstrated that an article's perceived newsworthiness
is one of the strongest predictors of its citation, along with sample size and
use of a control group, but after the publishing journal's
IF.9
All but one interviewed Editor believed that going online was unlikely to
have influenced their citation count markedly. In the field of computer
science, where researchers rely heavily on articles freely available online
and not published by journals, citation counts appear to correlate with online
availability.10
However it is less clear whether this holds for medical scientists, who appear
more reliant on print than electronic
journals.11 The
timing and extent of online availability of journals in our study varied over
our period of study, and there were insufficient temporal data to show any
real differences in IF following web access (analysis not shown). Such future
analysis would be of interest and could include other variables that may be
more greatly affected, such as immediacy of citations and validated hit
counts, for which most of our interviewed Editors did not have formal
data.
Whether intentional or not, changes in citeable article counts (the IF
denominator) can change IFs markedly and are subject to editorial policy.
Unintended factors included greater editorial selectivity and publication of
lengthier research papers (thereby fitting less into each issue). However, to
render their journal IFs more attractive to potential authors, two Editors
deliberately published fewer citable articles. It has also previously been
noted that when the Lancet began publishing research letters in 1997,
their inclusion in its citable article count led to a fall in its IF in 1998
and 1999.12
Misclassification of articles as citable by ISI, and hence inaccurate
calculations of the IF, have also been noted for
JAMA,12
CMAJ,13
Nature,14
and The
Lancet.15
Notably, recategorization of articles and negotiation with ISI about
categories for consideration as citable articles (or not), were conducted by
some Editors with an eye on their IFs.
Non-editorial influences
Interviewed Editors expressed the belief that more articles are being
cited, even as more journals are included in the ISI database. The data appear
to confirm this: from 2000 to 2005, the number of journals in the JCR Science
Edition rose by approximately 6% overall, from 5686 to
6008.6 In that
period, the total number of citations to internal and general medicine
journals rose yearly, with an overall increase of approximately 22% (from 570
475 to 695 155), while the total number of articles published dropped by
approximately 11% (from 14 103 to 12 600).
IFs as measures of quality
While our interviewed Editors were generally pleased at their journal's IF
improvement over time, they were uneasy about its use as a measure of journal
quality or as a means of keeping their clinical readers engaged. They are not
alone in their concerns. The two-year time span of the IF is known to favour
dynamic research fields such as the basic sciences, rather than clinical
medicine or public
health.2,3
The journal IF (which includes total citations to the journal) is not
necessarily representative of citations to individual articles, as these vary
widely.3,16
Garfield himself states that of 38 million items cited from 1900-2005,
only 0.5% were cited more than 200 times. Half [of the published articles]
were not cited at
all...17 The
most-cited 50% of papers published in Australian and New Zealand Journal
of Psychiatry (Aust NZ J Psychiatry) and in the Canadian Journal of
Psychiatry (Can J Psychiatry) between 1990 and 1995 account for
94% of all citations to these
publications.18
Citation counts do bear some correlation with
quality14 and
proposed hierarchies of
evidence.19 Journal
citation counts in the US Preventive Services Task Force guidelines were found
to correlate with their
IFs.20 Yet this
study showed that low IF journals were also cited frequently as providing
important evidence. There are other disadvantages to relying solely on
citation counts as quality indicators: they do not reflect the context of the
citation, as a paper may be much cited for being misleading or
erroneous;14 they
favour journals that publish many review articles; and they are subject to
author biases (e.g. the tendency to cite others in the same
discipline).21
Moreover, citation counts as used in the IF calculation are subject to
other biases. Citations are counted for all items in a journal, but
denominators only include specific items; thus the IF favours journals that
publish many articles contributing to the numerator but not the denominator
(e.g. letters to the
Editor).3 One study
has shown that when IF numerators were corrected using citations to source
items alone, 32% of 152 general medical journals dropped by at least three
places in
ranking.22 Bias may
also arise from author or journal self-citation (e.g. a fifth of citations in
the diabetes literature have been shown to be author self-citations unrelated
to the quality of the original
article);23 Editors
are also known to have asked authors to add citations to their
journals.24
Some authors have voiced concerns about the dominance of English language
and US publications in the ISI database as possible sources of
bias,3 but author
biases may be more influential: like native English speakers, authors in
countries where English is not the first language prefer to publish in English
(possibly as such articles have a higher impact than those in their native
tongue);25,26
they also prefer to cite English-language articles, even in non-English
language
publications.25
Alternatives to the IF
Concerns raised in our study and in the literature should be an impetus to
seek alternative or complementary measures for journal impact or quality.
Several initiatives to evaluate individual research papers have arisen,
essentially based on peer review. These include BMJ Updates (a joint
initiative with McMasters University, whereby articles from over 100 clinical
journals are selected on clinical relevance and scientific criteria, then
rated on relevance and
news-worthiness);27
Biomed Central Faculty of 1000 (whereby evaluators identify the most
interesting papers they have read and rate these as recommended,
must read or
exceptional);28
and a similar yearly initiative by the Aust NZ J Psychiatry (whereby
articles considered to have contributed most to knowledge and future research
in psychiatry that year are
identified).18 The
Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts & Sciences is exploring indicators for
the societal impact of applied health research that not only include citations
in journals, Cochrane reviews and policy documents, but also output as health
care technologies, services and
publicity.29
However, finding objective, reproducible and comprehensive indicators of
journal quality that can be regularly updated is more difficult. Such
indicators are most likely to complement, rather than substitute for, the
journal IF. They may comprise composite, weighted scores that could include
citations in clinically important publications such as evidence-based
guidelines (as well as journals), and the performance of journal
articles in initiatives such as BMJ Updates. Other suggested
bibliometric measures focus more on the particular choice of
publication period and citation window, the calculation of separate indicators
for different document types, the development of "relative",
field-normalized measures... supplementary measures and clarification of the
technical correctness of the processed
indicators.31
As an example of the last, IFs using citation counts corrected for substantive
items as in the denominator are now available in another Thompson Scientific
database, Journal Performance Indicators
(http://scientific.thomson.com/products/jpi/).17
It is clear that we have a long way to go in quest of better measures of
journal impact. However, we join the clamour for all with a stake in
appropriate evaluation of research publication to increase our endeavours in
this quest.
Study limitations
Our sample was purposive and not intended to be representative of all
general medical journals. We focused on several high-impact journals in order
to determine whether they had specific strategies that might explain their
success in the IF stakes. Our quantitative analysis of simple
observational data was exploratory in nature, generating issues for the
qualitative phase of the study, and we chose not to employ formal tests of
hypotheses.
The interview question and prompts were validated through triangulation,
using data from our quantitative study and preliminary literature survey.
Respondent validation was also employed: additional issues raised by earlier
interviewees were fed back to subsequent interviewees for their
responses on whether these were reasonable; any contradictory responses were
further explored in the interviews and refined our analysis.32
Interviews were not audio-taped, as we felt this might inhibit responses,
particularly to sensitive issues such as editorial manipulation of the IF. Due
to resource constraints, independent analysis of the qualitative data by a
second investigator was not possible, but we attempted to enhance reliability
with meticulous note-taking of interviews and documentation of the
analysis.
 |
Footnotes
|
|---|
Competing interests MC was Deputy Editor of the
Medical
Journal of Australia when this research was conducted and subsequently
presented
at the 5th International Congress of Peer Review and Biomedical
Publication
in September 2005. She is currently an Associate Editor with
the
BMJ. MVDW is Editor of the
Medical Journal of Australia.
EV
has no competing interests to declare.
Funding None.
Ethical approval Not required.
Guarantor Mabel Chew.
Acknowledgments Our thanks to Joanne Elliot for assistance with
data collection and to all Editors who participated.
 |
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