J R Soc Med 2002;95:280-283
doi:10.1258/jrsm.95.6.280
© 2002 Royal Society of Medicine
Waiting in the NHS, Part 2: a change of prescription
Sarah Derrett DipCpN PhD
Nancy Devlin PhD 1
Anthony Harrison MA 1
Centre for Health Planning and Management, Keele University,
Staffordshire ST5 5BG, UK
1 King's Fund, 11-13 Cavendish Square, London W1G 0AN, UK
Correspondence to: Sarah Derrett E-mail:
s.l.derrett{at}keele.ac.uk
 |
INTRODUCTION
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Part 1 (Waiting in the NHS: a diagnosis) highlighted the deficiencies
of
waiting-time targets as the principal means of managing lists
and concluded
that a more comprehensive approach is
required
1.
Waiting-time
targets introduce perverse incentives and are isolated from
issues
of health sector efficiency and opportunity cost. Furthermore,
priority
on waiting lists is determined not explicitly but implicitly,
by clinical
judgments. These vary between doctors and between
regions and do not relate
strongly to patient-experienced health
status
1.
Consequently,
we have a poor understanding of the health status of patients
on
waiting lists, and variation in general practitioner (GP)
referral practices
leads to differences in apparent need. Simple
target-setting is therefore also
divorced from NHS equity goals.
In this paper we suggest a way forward. We
describe moves towards
explicit prioritization of patients in other countries,
particularly
New Zealand. These experiences suggest new directions for the
NHSand
pitfalls to avoid.
Box 1 summarizes the benefits and drawbacks of explicit prioritization in
principle. The NHS is not pursuing improved waiting-list management in
isolation2,3:
explicit criteria for prioritizing access to surgery have been or are being
implemented to varying degrees in several countries, including the
UK4,5,6,7,8,9.
However, to date, there has been little opportunity to evaluate the successes
and failures of these systems in
practice10.
Experience in New Zealand provides an opportunity to explore the outcomes of
explicit prioritization.
 |
EXPLICIT PATIENT PRIORITIZATION IN NEW ZEALAND
|
|---|
New Zealand introduced a nation-wide system for explicitly prioritizing
and
booking patients for elective surgery. Most of the clinical
priority
assessment criteria (CPAC) include a range of dimensions
(clinical health
status, patient-experienced health status and
social), scored according to
severity and added to provide a
total score ranging from 0 (lowest priority)
to 100. Financial
threshold scores indicate the points required by patients to
receive
treatment funded from existing budgets. The system as it was
conceived
16,
and as
it has
changed
17,18,
is described elsewhere. Box 2 presents
an example of patients' journeys
through the New Zealand booking
system as it was implemented in
1996.
| Box 1: Explicit prioritization: pros and cons
Pros3,11,12,13
- Allows health services to be planned in relation to measured patient and
population need
- May reduce unnecessary and inappropriate demand
- Allows better targeting of patients with the greatest likelihood of
beneficial outcomes, thus ensuring maximum improvement in health from limited
budgets
- Can lead to better-informed patients and public and increased
participation
- Equity issues can be identified and addressed
- Has potential for honest relationships between health professionals and
patients: patients are told the truth about access to treatment, and are
involved in decision-making
- Reduces undesirable and variable decision-making
- Reduces gaming: where doctors place inappropriately high
implicit priority on their patients to gain access ahead of
other patients or where complaining patients receive preferential access
Cons3,12,13,14,15
- Explicit criteria may threaten doctor-patient relationship
- Explicit criteria may ignore patients' preferences for and about
treatment
- Explicit criteria may have negative impact in forcing doctors to tell
patients they will not receive treatment and in forcing patients to hear this
decision
- Explicit criteria are rational and technocratic and may not
be responsive to other important factors such as coexisting disease
- Explicit prioritization may be subject to political manipulation
- Explicit prioritization may lead to gaming by patients or doctors
- Explicit prioritization may increase transaction costs to the health
service.
|
Drawbacks
Some of the difficulties encountered by the New Zealand system were
contextual; it was introduced at a time when health funding was
declining19. The
existing internal market contributed to the establishment of different
financial thresholds, different financial arrangements and the use of
different CPAC tools for the same surgical
condition17. In
appraising the system it is helpful to look separately at the prioritization
component and the booking component.
Many of the difficulties were attributable to the CPAC. These were
inadequately evaluated before introduction, being assessed only for agreement
with clinical
judgment16. When
CPAC were evaluated they were found to have poor reliability and
validity20,21,22,
and not to relate strongly to patient-experienced health
status23,24
or serious health outcomes, including
mortality25,26.
Some patients reported that the process of CPAC scoring
detrimentally affected their relationship with clinicians; the method
complicated the path to reassessment and was unresponsive to their preferences
regarding
treatment23. This
drawback was even more obvious when health professionals other than surgeons
completed the CPAC. Scoring also seemed to interfere with discussions that
ought to occur between surgeons and patients about anticipated risks and
benefits of surgeryagain particularly when the scoring was undertaken
by someone other than the surgeon.
Some clinicians reacted
negatively22, and
suspected that the motivation for explicitness was not to improve patient
prioritization but simply to manage the allocation of scarce resources through
financial
thresholds27,28.
Explicit prioritization highlighted tensions between processes determining
access for groups, and traditional doctorpatient relationships
emphasizing standards of care for
individuals29,
leading to concerns that patients and doctors would game the
system. In practice, a regional study found that few patients received surgery
beneath the financial thresholds for surgeryi.e. there was little
gaming by
patients23. One
clinician openly expressed willingness to exaggerate the severity of patients'
conditions if he judged that this would ensure surgery for those who needed
it; but many clinicians rejected this approach as unfair to other
patients.
| Box 2: New Zealand's points system
In New Zealand, patients' journeys through the booking system began on
referral to specialist clinics at a public hospital. Letters of referral were
evaluated by hospital staff using explicit access criteria for first
assessment (ACA), and patients were prioritized for outpatient appointments
according to their ACA. At outpatient clinics, if specialists determined that
patients were likely to benefit from surgery, patients were prioritized for
surgery according to clinical assessment criteria (CPAC).
Financial thresholds (CPAC scores at or above which surgery was to be
provided) were calculated for each CPAC tool from historical rates of
referral, case complexity and funding provided. People with CPAC scores at or
above the financial threshold were to be booked for surgery within six months
of their outpatient assessment. Those scoring below the financial threshold
were to be referred back to their original healthcare provider for ongoing
care and treatment. If their conditions worsened they were to be re-referred,
reassessed and rescored by CPAC.
|
Positive outcomes
New Zealand's system also generated important positive outcomes, many of
them associated with the booking of patients for surgery. Patients who scored
above the financial threshold, and were guaranteed surgery, seemed much more
satisfied than patients on waiting lists under the implicit
system23. This
tended to be so even when patients were not provided with set dates for
surgery far in advance: the certainty of treatment within the next six months
(or longer) was the crucial factor.
Many patients expressed support for mechanisms allowing faster access to
surgery for those with severe conditions, sometimes even when they personally
had been denied access. However, this may change if inadequate funding denies
access to many patients with clear needsor if patients become less
altruistic23.
The CPAC, despite their flaws, also provided positive outcomes. More is
known about regional inequities and differences in the financing of elective
surgery than was known under the previous implicit
system30. The
system revealed that some patients were not gaining access to surgery simply
because financial thresholds were higher in some parts of the country than in
others. This observation prompted a debate on equity issues in funding for
elective surgery.
Importantly, each of the CPAC included some measures of patient-experienced
health status. This contrasts with implicit prioritization, where clinicians
vary in the consideration they give to such matters. Further, use of explicit
tools permitted evaluation of the health status and outcomes of patients in
relation to the criteria. Although research has revealed questionable
relationships between CPAC tools and patient health status or
outcomes23,24,
the strengths and weaknesses of the new system are more clearly identifiable
than those of implicit prioritization, in which the three priorities (A, B or
C) are assigned without
explanation1.
 |
THE WAY FORWARD
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Do the difficulties experienced in New Zealand and elsewhere
mean the NHS
should steer clear of explicit approaches to waiting-list
management? Many of
those described above are largely avoidable.
By contrast, there is no obvious
solution to the problems of
waiting-time targets if the NHS continues to rely
on implicit
prioritization
1.
The
benefits apparent in New Zealand argue for a change of approach
to waiting in
the NHS, though the way forward must be plotted
with great care. The NHS
should not simply adopt prioritization
criteria from other countries,
particularly when these have
shown scant relation to patient-experienced
health statusthe
core issue for much elective
surgery
23,24.
The first step should be agreement on the purpose of waiting-list policy.
Is it to reduce the numbers of people waiting for surgery? To reduce the
average time spent waiting for surgery? To improve the health status of
patients waiting for treatment? Or is it to ensure that those with equal need
gain equal access to treatment irrespective of where they liveand that
those in greatest need gain quickest access?
Waiting times and numbers targets do not address the latter aim and, as we
pointed out in part 1, distort clinical priorities. Explicit ordering of
people on waiting lists is necessary both to ensure equal treatment for equal
need and to ensure that the NHS budgets yield the greatest possible
improvements in health.
Priority criteria could initially be used in conjunction with waiting-time
targets, to overcome perverse effects on priorities. Longer-term appropriate
thresholds could be determined. Thresholds, together with other current
strategies31,32,33,34,
could facilitate sophisticated whole systems management of
waiting lists and resource allocation.
Great caution is needed in development of explicit criteria. No good tools
exist to enable prioritization across a wide range of conditions or types of
surgery24; and even
if such instruments were available, they might not be acceptable to health
workers or the
public12,13.
However, there are patient-experienced health status measures that relate to
likely benefit from specific treatments, and these can help inform the
ordering of patients. Where such instruments do not exist, clinicians and
researchers should work with patients to develop and refine such tools.
Explicit health status criteria ought not entirely to usurp clinical judgment:
no patient should be prioritized for surgery when the clinician doubts the
likely benefit. Clinicians must be actively engaged in the use, development
and continuing improvement of explicit
criteria35.
Concerns about gaming must be considered when more explicit approaches are
contemplated12.
However, gaming is not confined to explicit prioritization. Indeed, one of the
reasons for implementing explicit systems is to address gaming within implicit
systems. Probably a minority of patients and doctors will always exaggerate to
obtain benefits at the expense of other patients. Explicit approaches provide
opportunities to address this behaviour through clinical governance and
through between-hospital and between-region comparisons. Prioritization
criteria also offer information to planners and policy-makers about the actual
situation for patients on waiting lists, and facilitate debate about the
allocation of resources to groups of patients in greatest needin
accordance with the NHS aims of maximizing health gain and minimizing health
inequalities.
 |
CONCLUSIONS
|
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Rather than building on the gains emerging from the explicit
system, New
Zealand has in some clinical areas returned to implicit
prioritization based
solely on clinical
judgment
18,36.
This
move is said to have been supported by clinicians. The motivation
for the
retreat from explicitness has not been clearly stated,
but seemingly the
reversion was not driven by a perception that
the political costs exceeded the
benefits
3. The
British NHS
can learn from New Zealand's successes and mistakes and develop
better
approaches. There have long been calls for improved incorporation
of
patient-experienced health status: the time is now ripe for
such a
changewith prospective evaluation of the process
and of the outcomes
for patients and clinicians.
 |
Acknowledgments
|
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We thank Paul Zollinger-Read (Director of Demand Management,
Modernisation
Agency), Ruth Kipping (Primary Care Development
Manager, Demand Management
Team, Modernisation Agency) and Charlotte
Paul (Department of Preventive and
Social Medicine at the University
of Otago) for helpful comments.
 |
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